Used car prices have started to drift lower, which matters to anyone who owns a vehicle or expects to buy one soon. The newest wholesale data from Cox Automotive puts values slightly below where they stood a year earlier, with fuel, interest rates and changing tastes pulling in different directions.
In this article we will explore what the Manheim index measures, what pushed it down in September, where electric vehicles went the other way, and how sellers and buyers can respond.
The September Reading in Plain Numbers
Cox Automotive publishes the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index every month, and the release on 7 October covered September. The index came in at 205.9. Adjusted for the normal seasonal rhythm of the car market, it was down 0.6 percent from a year earlier and down 1.1 percent from August. Without that adjustment, wholesale prices were down 1.2 percent from a year earlier and down 1.3 percent from August.
Seasonal adjustment deserves a short explanation, because two sets of numbers can look like a contradiction when they are not. Used car prices follow predictable patterns, such as strong demand in spring when tax refunds arrive and softer stretches later in the year. The adjusted series tries to remove those patterns so you can see whether prices are moving for some other reason, while the non-adjusted series shows the raw movement in what dealers paid. Here both point the same way, which makes the decline hard to dismiss as a calendar quirk.
| Measure | Change from August | Change from a year earlier |
| Seasonally adjusted index | Down 1.1 percent | Down 0.6 percent |
| Non-adjusted wholesale prices | Down 1.3 percent | Down 1.2 percent |
It helps to know what a number like 205.9 represents. It is an index level, not a dollar price, so it has no meaning on its own and is useful only when compared with earlier readings. Think of it as a thermometer for the wholesale market: the absolute figure tells you little, but the direction of travel tells you whether things are warming or cooling.
Jeremy Robb, Cox’s chief economist, described September as “the weakest season for wholesale valuations.” That is a pointed phrase for a monthly drop of about one percent, and it reflects how steady this market usually is. A swing of a point or so does not wreck anyone’s finances, but it is enough to change the mood at auctions and, with a delay, on dealer lots. These figures describe the United States; used car markets in Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia and elsewhere run on their own supply, tax and financing conditions and can move in different directions.
Wholesale Prices and the Sticker Price Are Different Things
The most important caveat sits in the name of the index itself. Manheim measures wholesale prices, meaning what dealers and other trade buyers pay at auctions, not what a shopper pays on a dealer lot or in a private sale. A headline saying that used car values fell does not mean the car you are eyeing will be cheaper this weekend. It means that the raw material dealers buy has become a little less expensive, and that will filter through only if competition and demand push retail prices the same way.
Why Retail Follows With a Lag
Wholesale changes pass through to retail slowly, for several ordinary reasons. A dealer who bought a car at auction a month ago still carries that cost, and no one likes to mark down a vehicle below what it cost to acquire plus the money spent cleaning and inspecting it. Dealers also advertise and price in cycles, and many hold prices for weeks before reacting. The result is that retail asking prices tend to trail wholesale trends, sometimes by a month or more, and that trail can vary by region and by vehicle type.
There is also a difference in who sets the price. At an auction, professional buyers compete in minutes, and the hammer price reflects their cold calculation of resale value. On a retail lot, a shopper may be swayed by a color, a feature or a convenient location, and a seller can hold out for a better offer. Wholesale is therefore the faster and more sensitive gauge, and retail is the slower and stickier one.
What the Lag Means for You
For a seller, the lag cuts both ways. If you are trading in, the dealer is valuing your car against what it can fetch at auction or on its own lot, so a weaker wholesale market can show up in your offer quickly. If you are buying, the discount you may be hoping for will probably arrive late and unevenly, so shop with comparison data rather than assuming the news has already lowered the price. Either way, remember that an index is an average across a huge range of vehicles. Your specific model, mileage and local market matter more to your outcome than a national percentage.
Four Pressures Behind the Dip
Cox listed several drivers behind the September decline. None of them is exotic, but together they explain why a market that often holds firm gave ground. Treat them as a checklist of forces that can ease or intensify, rather than a single cause.
These forces overlap. A driver worried about fuel bills is often the same person worried about a loan payment, and a dealer who sees both pressures in the showroom will bid more cautiously at auction. That chain of reactions is how a handful of everyday pressures becomes a measurable move in a national index.
Higher Fuel Costs
Cox pointed to higher fuel costs, noting that diesel reached record highs. Fuel is a running cost every driver feels, and it changes how attractive different vehicles look. Large trucks and work vehicles burn a lot of it, and the businesses that rely on diesel feel the pressure first. When fuel is expensive, a used full-size truck becomes a less appealing purchase, and the dealers who would bid for it at auction become more cautious.
Interest Rates and Economic Pressure
Cox also cited rising interest rates and broader economic pressure. Most used vehicles are bought with a loan, so a higher rate raises the monthly payment on the same sticker price. Shoppers who cannot stretch their payment respond by buying a cheaper car, an older one, or no purchase at all. Dealers face higher costs for the money they borrow to stock cars on the lot, which makes them bid lower at auction. Rates and general economic worry often travel together, and the car market sits right in the path of both.
A Shift Away From Big Pickups and SUVs
Demand for large pickups and SUVs weakened, according to Cox, while older and more affordable vehicles depreciated less. Depreciation is simply the loss in value as a car ages and accumulates miles. A five-figure truck has more value left to lose than a cheap, older sedan, so when buyers trade down, the expensive end of the market feels more pressure. This is a useful pattern to remember: in a stressed economy, the bottom of the used market often holds its value better than the top.
A Quiet Hurricane Season
Cox also noted that no Atlantic hurricane struck in September, which removed the usual demand boost that follows a storm. Severe storms damage or destroy large numbers of vehicles, and replacing them lifts demand for used cars in the affected regions. The absence of a storm is good news for coastal communities and a small drag on the index. It is an example of how a wholesale average can respond to events that have nothing to do with the broader economy.
None of these pressures is permanent. Fuel prices can fall as quickly as they rise, interest rates change with central bank decisions, and buyer tastes shift with the seasons and the news. If those conditions ease, the index could stabilize without any dramatic event, which is one reason it makes sense to follow several months of data instead of a single release.
Electric Vehicles Move Against the Trend
The one clear bright spot in Cox’s report was electric vehicles. Their wholesale values rose, according to Cox, as high gasoline prices lifted demand for fuel-efficient vehicles. Wholesale electric vehicle sales were up 22 percent from the second quarter and up 45 percent from a year earlier, reaching a record 4.9 percent of Manheim transactions. That share is still a small slice of the market, but the direction matters, because a segment that was losing value quickly can change the numbers for owners and shoppers alike.
The record share matters because it shows buyers responding to price signals at the pump. When gasoline gets expensive, shoppers do the arithmetic on a year of fuel and begin to consider vehicles they once ignored. Dealers read the same signal and begin to bid more confidently for fuel-efficient inventory, which supports values in that corner of the market even as larger vehicles fade.
If You Own an Electric Vehicle
An owner of a used electric vehicle may find that trade-in and instant offers are better than they were not long ago, though the effect depends on the model, the battery condition and local charging availability. Collect documentation that shows how the battery has performed, and keep any records of warranty coverage that might transfer to a buyer. Rules and incentives for electric vehicles differ by country and by state, so check current local details instead of assuming. A strong auction trend is not a promise for any one car.
If You Are Shopping for One
A higher price for used electric vehicles does not make them a bad buy. Many shoppers still find that the lower running cost and simpler maintenance outweigh a higher purchase price, especially for drivers who can charge at home. Ask for a battery health report if one is available, check the charging equipment and cables included, and confirm what is left of any battery warranty. Efficient gasoline cars and hybrids also tend to benefit when fuel prices are high, so a shopper focused on fuel economy has plenty of options beyond the electric segment.
Cox Cut Its Year-End Forecast Sharply
Cox now expects the index to finish 2026 up about 0.2 percent year over year. In July the company had forecast a gain of 2 percent, so the new call is a substantial downgrade. For context, the 2025 increase was 0.4 percent, and the long-term average is 2.3 percent. By those standards the market is moving from healthy to nearly flat, not collapsing.
| Reference point | Figure |
| Cox forecast for 2026 made in July | Up about 2 percent |
| Cox expectation now for 2026 | Up about 0.2 percent |
| Increase recorded for 2025 | Up 0.4 percent |
| Long-term average annual increase | Up 2.3 percent |
As simple arithmetic from those figures, the forecast has been trimmed by 1.8 percentage points. A cut of that size in a few months is a reminder that forecasts in this market are estimates and not commitments. Fuel prices, interest rates and consumer confidence can move quickly, and the next monthly release may shift the story either way. The fair reading is that values have stopped rising and are drifting around the flat line, which is a very different thing from the sharp declines that followed some earlier episodes.
For people who plan to keep a car for many years, a flat year-end forecast barely matters. Depreciation continues at its usual steady pace, and the value of a vehicle you drive until it wears out is mostly the transportation it provides. The index matters most to people who are about to sell, about to trade or about to buy, and to anyone whose loan balance is close to the car’s market value.
My own view is that people should avoid making a major decision based on one month of an index. A single weak reading can reverse, and a seller who panics at a headline may accept a poor offer. The more useful habit is to follow the trend over several months while collecting actual quotes for the specific car in question.
Trading in a Car in a Softer Market
Most people value their car by looking at what a similar one is advertised for, but that number is a hopeful asking price and not a result. A dealer assessing your trade-in starts from a different question: what will it cost to prepare this car, and what can it fetch quickly? In a market where wholesale numbers are slipping, that arithmetic gets tighter, which is why offers can feel lower than expected.
Anyone planning to sell a vehicle in the coming months should think through the route before the price. Each path trades convenience against money, and a softer wholesale market tends to widen that gap because dealers protect themselves with lower bids.
Three Ways to Sell
| Route | Main advantage | Main drawback |
| Trade-in at a dealer | One stop, simple paperwork, and in many places a tax benefit worth checking locally | Often the lowest price, and the number can blur into the new car deal |
| Private sale | Usually the best price | You handle listings, messages, test drives, safe payment and title transfer |
| Instant-offer quote | Fast and low effort | The offer can be adjusted after an inspection, and it may expire in days |
Collect Several Quotes
Get at least three numbers on the same day, using the same description of the car, and note when each quote expires. In a market where wholesale values are slipping, an offer that looked good last week may be lower now, so do not let a quote sit. If you do not need to sell, you can wait, but waiting for the market to recover is a bet against the current trend and cannot be counted on. If you do need to sell, a modest price now usually beats a stressful hunt for a higher one.
Safety deserves attention in a private sale. Meet buyers in a public place during daylight, confirm payment has cleared before handing over the title, and be wary of any buyer who offers more than the asking price or insists on an unusual payment method. Your state or local motor vehicle agency can explain how to file a transfer or notice of sale, and the rules differ by location.
Check What You Owe
If your car carries a loan, compare the payoff amount with the quotes you receive. This comparison is called loan-to-value, and it matters because a falling market can leave an owner owing more than the car is worth. As an illustration with invented round numbers, suppose a car is worth $20,000 and the loan balance is $22,000. That leaves a $2,000 gap, which has to be paid in cash or rolled into the next loan, and rolling it over raises the next payment. Ask your lender for a written payoff figure before you negotiate.
Keep the Paper Trail
Service records, a clean vehicle history report and both keys help a buyer trust the car, and trust supports price. Fix small cosmetic issues if they cost little, and skip major repairs before selling because buyers rarely repay them in full. Remove personal data from any infotainment system and cancel connected-car subscriptions when the car changes hands.
Buying Used When Wholesale Values Soften
Falling wholesale numbers are encouraging news for shoppers, but they are not a coupon, and they do nothing for a shopper who is unprepared. The sensible response is to stay patient, widen the search and compare total costs. This is general information, not a guide to any one purchase.
The first rule is to avoid buying out of fear of missing a deal or fear of waiting. A market that is flat to slightly lower does not punish a careful shopper, and it rewards those with flexibility on color, trim and timing. If your current car still runs well, the cheapest purchase is often the one you postpone.
Do Not Expect Instant Discounts
Because retail prices trail wholesale prices, the cuts may appear gradually. The categories most affected by weaker demand, such as large pickups and SUVs, may offer the earliest room to negotiate, while efficient vehicles may stay firm. Check several listings for the same model in your region and watch how long they remain unsold. A car that has sat for weeks gives you more leverage than one posted yesterday.
Negotiate on Total Cost
Focus on the out-the-door price, which includes taxes, registration, and dealer fees, rather than on the monthly payment alone. A lower payment stretched over a longer loan can cost more overall. Compare financing offers from a bank or credit union before visiting a dealer, because a pre-approval gives you a benchmark and may beat what the dealer offers. Paying cash avoids interest, but it should not drain the emergency savings you rely on, so weigh that trade-off honestly.
A certified pre-owned vehicle sold through a franchised dealer usually carries an inspection and a manufacturer-backed warranty, and it costs more than a comparable uncertified car. Whether that premium is worthwhile depends on how much repair risk you are willing to carry. For an older or higher-mileage car, set aside a repair fund and read any warranty fine print for what is excluded, how claims are handled and who performs the repairs.
Inspect Before You Commit
Pay an independent mechanic for a pre-purchase inspection, especially on an older vehicle with unknown history. Pull a vehicle history report, check for open recalls using the vehicle identification number, and look for signs of flood or accident damage. Drive the car on both city streets and highways, and be skeptical of anyone who pressures you to decide on the spot. A slightly soft market lets you walk away from a car that raises doubts.
Final Thoughts
The calmest approach is to work in order, starting with the decisions that cost nothing and ending with the ones that involve signing paperwork. Rushing the last step is how most people lose money in a car deal.
Begin with the facts you can control. Find out whether you owe money on your car, gather your service records, and write down the mileage, trim level and condition in plain terms. If you might sell within a few months, ask for three quotes now to learn your baseline, then repeat the exercise a few weeks later to see which way values are moving.
If you are buying, set a total budget that includes insurance and fuel as well as the purchase price, and get a financing quote from your own bank before visiting any lot. Build a short list of vehicles rather than a single target, since flexibility is your strongest tool in a market with softer prices. Keep a simple record of every quote and listing you see, with the date, because patterns in your own notes are more reliable than a general impression. If prices for your type of vehicle are falling week by week, you will see it, and if they are holding steady, you will see that too.
Finally, treat the Manheim index as background weather, not as a verdict on your car. Read the next release when it comes out, keep your decisions tied to actual quotes, and consult a qualified professional if your situation involves a complicated loan or legal matter.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the Manheim Index the Price I Will Pay at a Dealership?
No. It tracks wholesale prices at dealer auctions, and retail prices follow with a lag. Your local market and the specific car matter more than the national average.
How Much Did Used Car Values Fall in September?
Cox reported the seasonally adjusted index down 1.1 percent from August and down 0.6 percent from a year earlier. Non-adjusted wholesale prices fell 1.3 percent from August and 1.2 percent from a year earlier.
Will Used Car Prices Keep Falling?
Nobody can say for certain. Cox now expects the index to finish 2026 up about 0.2 percent year over year, down from the 2 percent gain it forecast in July, which suggests a flat market and not a steep decline.
Which Used Vehicles Are Gaining Value Right Now?
According to Cox, electric vehicles gained wholesale value as high gasoline prices lifted demand for fuel-efficient vehicles. Older and more affordable vehicles also depreciated less than large pickups and SUVs.
Does a Lower Index Mean My Own Car Is Worth Less Today?
Not necessarily by the same amount. The index is a national average, so your car’s value depends on its model, condition, mileage and local demand. Get a current quote to see where it stands.
How Do I Know Whether a Trade-in Offer Is Fair?
Compare it with at least two other quotes, including an instant offer and, if you can manage it, an estimate for a private sale. Check your loan payoff and ask the dealer to show the trade-in value separately from the new car price.