If it feels as though holiday shopping starts earlier every year, the numbers agree. Adobe’s forecast puts US online spending from 1 November to 31 December 2026 at $275.1 billion, up 6.7 percent, with Cyber Monday alone near $15.1 billion.
In this article we will discuss what the forecast says, how pay later and AI-driven traffic are changing the way people shop, what a recent PayPal survey reveals about attitudes, and how to get through the season without overspending.
The Forecast Puts Online Spending at $275.1 Billion
Adobe released its holiday forecast on 28 September 2026 as part of its Digital Economy Index. The company expects US online holiday sales between 1 November and 31 December to reach $275.1 billion, a rise of 6.7 percent. Adobe analyzes online transactions across a large share of US retail websites, so its projections are widely quoted, though they remain estimates and not final results. The figures here are US-centered; shoppers in other countries will see different calendars, tax rules and return rights.
Cyber Monday, which falls on 30 November this year, is forecast at $15.1 billion, up 6.2 percent. Online grocery is expected to reach $26.1 billion, up 10.3 percent. Adobe also counted the Amazon Prime Day event on 6 and 7 October, which produced $9.9 billion in online spending, up 9.2 percent. That event came a few weeks before the holiday season began, and it is a useful hint about how early some households now start.
What the Numbers Do and Do Not Mean
A forecast of 6.7 percent growth is a statement about total dollars, not about how much each person will spend. Prices can rise, which lifts dollars without any additional goods being bought. More shoppers can move online from stores, which lifts online totals while store sales fall. And a few big spenders can move the total a lot. So the headline does not tell you whether the average household will buy more or less. It tells you that online is expected to remain a growing share of the season.
It is also worth knowing what a forecast like this leaves out. It cannot foresee a sudden change in the weather, a supply problem, a shift in consumer confidence or a late surge in discounting. Retailers also decide how aggressively to promote, and heavy discounting can lift the number of orders while holding back revenue per order. For a reader the lesson is simple: use the forecast to grasp the direction of travel and the days likely to be busiest, but do not read it as a promise of what any single store will do.
A Note on Who Is Counted
Adobe’s data covers online purchases and not in-store sales, so a household that does most of its gift buying at a mall barely shows up in these numbers. Industry groups publish separate forecasts that include stores, and they can differ in method. Treat any single forecast as one lens on the season, and check back after the holidays when final tallies come in.
Cyber Monday and the Days Around It
Digital Commerce 360, reporting on the Adobe forecast, added a daily breakdown that gives a sense of how the season is likely to peak. This is a single-source report, so the figures below are attributed to that outlet’s account of Adobe’s projections. It said the five-day stretch from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, which Adobe calls Cyber 5, should reach $47.5 billion, up 7.4 percent.
Thanksgiving and Black Friday
Thanksgiving Day is projected at $6.9 billion, up 8.5 percent, and Black Friday at $12.9 billion, up 9.2 percent. Digital Commerce 360 said Black Friday is expected to be the second-largest day of the season. The pace of growth on these two days is faster than on Cyber Monday, which fits a trend in which retailers open their deals earlier and shoppers respond.
Many people now do some of their buying from the couch after a holiday meal, a habit that would have sounded odd a generation ago.
Cyber Monday
Cyber Monday 2025 totaled $14.25 billion, according to the same report, and the new forecast of $15.1 billion is 6.2 percent above it. Black Friday’s $12.9 billion forecast trails it by about $2.2 billion, a simple subtraction using the figures above, which is consistent with Black Friday ranking second.
The practical point is that the biggest single online day is not always the best day to buy. Retailers extend deals across the whole week or month, and many matching promotions begin well before the day itself. If you have a list of items you need, you often do better by tracking prices for a few weeks than by waiting for one day.
For most households, the practical effect of busy peak days is on delivery. When millions of orders land in the same few days, carriers and warehouses are stretched, and a promised arrival date can slip. If a gift has a deadline, order it with room to spare, and pay attention to the cutoff dates that each retailer posts for guaranteed holiday delivery. Choosing in-store pickup can also help, since it avoids carrier delays and sometimes the shipping fee.
Categories Show Where the Growth Is
Digital Commerce 360 also relayed Adobe’s category projections for the season. The table below pulls them together with the grocery figure Adobe provided, so you can see which parts of the basket are expected to grow fastest. All figures are dollar amounts for online sales between 1 November and 31 December.
| Category | Forecast online sales | Expected growth |
| Electronics | $63.3 billion | 5.9 percent |
| Apparel | $51.3 billion | 4.7 percent |
| Furniture | $33.4 billion | 7.3 percent |
| Grocery | $26.1 billion | 10.3 percent |
| Toys | $9.6 billion | 9.6 percent |
| Cosmetics | $9.2 billion | 9.5 percent |
Electronics and apparel are the biggest categories in dollar terms, while grocery, toys and cosmetics are growing fastest. By simple arithmetic, the five categories reported by Digital Commerce 360 (electronics, apparel, furniture, toys and cosmetics) add up to $166.8 billion, which leaves the rest of the $275.1 billion in other categories.
What the Growth Pattern Suggests
Grocery growing at 10.3 percent is a sign that online food shopping has become routine, and that holiday hosts are ordering ingredients for delivery or pickup in addition to gifts. Slower growth in electronics and apparel suggests these categories are mature and price-sensitive. Furniture, up 7.3 percent, is an interesting case, since large items depend on delivery times and return policies that shoppers should read before clicking.
Adobe’s grocery projection deserves a second look because it hints at a change in routine. Online grocery is no longer limited to a bulk order for a big holiday meal; many households now use delivery or pickup for the weekly shop. The risk is that substitutions, delivery fees and tips make the basket cost more than it would in a store, so compare the all-in total with what you normally spend in person.
The Role of the Phone
Digital Commerce 360 reported that mobile devices are expected to account for 57.4 percent of the season’s online spending, up from 56.4 percent a year earlier. That is a one-point increase by simple subtraction. Shopping on a phone is convenient, but screens are small, and it is easier to miss details such as the shipping cost, delivery date and return window. Slow down at checkout and read the total before you tap the button.
AI Traffic Is Changing How Shoppers Find Products
One of the most eye-catching numbers in the forecast is the one for artificial intelligence. Adobe expects AI-driven traffic to US retail sites to rise 130 percent year over year. Digital Commerce 360 added that the growth should be strongest on Thanksgiving at 159 percent, followed by Black Friday at 95 percent and Cyber Monday at 88 percent.
It helps to be clear about what the figure measures. It counts visits that arrive at retail websites from AI tools, such as chat assistants and AI-powered search summaries, and it says nothing in itself about how many of those visits end in purchases. A jump of 130 percent can also be a big percentage from a small starting base. Still, the direction is plain: more shoppers are asking an assistant for gift ideas or product comparisons before they open a store page.
How Shoppers Use AI Tools
Typical uses include asking for gift suggestions within a budget, comparing two products on features, summarizing long review pages and drafting a list for a family member. Used this way, an assistant can save time. It is no substitute for checking the details yourself.
There is a deeper question about trust. Traditional search shows a list of sellers and lets you choose; an assistant often gives a single summary. A summary is easy to read and easy to accept without checking, which is exactly why the checking step matters. If an answer sounds too good, or the product’s name is unfamiliar, search for it separately and look for reviews from buyers who bought it, not just reviews quoted by the tool.
Where to Be Careful
AI tools can state wrong things confidently, including prices, specifications and whether an item is in stock. Prices change by the hour, so any figure from an assistant should be confirmed on the retailer’s own page. Some recommendations may reflect paid placement or whatever sources the tool happened to draw on. A good habit is to use AI to narrow a list, then verify price, shipping time, warranty and return policy with the seller before you buy. Be cautious of any chatbot or website that urges you to buy right now or asks for payment details in a chat window.
Pay Later Keeps Growing as a Way to Check Out
Adobe expects buy now, pay later spending in November and December to reach $21.3 billion, up 6.6 percent. By simple arithmetic that is roughly 7.7 percent of the $275.1 billion online total. Digital Commerce 360 put pay later at about $1.09 billion on Cyber Monday and about $807 million on Black Friday. The Cyber Monday figure is around 7 percent of that day’s forecast, again by simple arithmetic.
How Pay Later Works
The most common form is a pay-in-four plan, in which you pay a quarter of the price at checkout and the rest in three further installments, often at two-week intervals. Longer plans split a purchase over several months, and some of those carry interest. The details vary by provider, so read the terms rather than assuming. The lender pays the merchant, and you owe the lender. That arrangement is convenient, but it is still a loan.
Where It Goes Wrong
Late fees differ between providers, and a missed installment can be costly or affect your standing with the provider. Returns and refunds can be slower, because the plan has to be adjusted or the refund has to pass through the lender before you see it. It is also easy to lose track of several small loans spread across different providers, each with its own schedule. And the biggest risk is psychological: seeing a payment of one-quarter of the price makes a purchase feel smaller than it is, and the money still has to come from future paychecks. A plan that fits one month can crowd out another.
One more feature of pay later deserves a mention. Because the merchant is paid up front, the shopper’s relationship is with the lender, and that can complicate disputes. If an item arrives damaged or never arrives, you may need to deal with both the seller and the lender, and installments may continue until the dispute is settled. Keep order numbers and screenshots, and read how each provider treats refunds and disputes before you accept an offer.
| Question to ask | Why it matters |
| What is the full price and when is each payment due | Total cost and due dates should be clear before you accept |
| Is there interest or a late fee | Terms differ by provider and plan length |
| How are returns and refunds handled | Refunds may take longer than a card refund |
| Will I have other open plans at the same time | Several plans are easy to lose track of |
| Could I pay this off from this month’s budget | If not, the plan may be creating room that does not exist |
This is general information, not financial advice. If you use pay later at all, a sound rule is to treat the installments as part of your regular budget and not as extra spending room.
Shoppers Are Anxious yet Planning to Spend
A survey released by PayPal on 30 September 2026 and conducted by Morning Consult gives a view of the mood behind these numbers. It polled 2,005 US adults from 2 to 4 September, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 points. PayPal is a payments company that offers pay-later products, so it is worth remembering that the poll comes from a business with an interest in shopping and payment habits.
The headline finding is a mix of worry and willingness. About 58 percent said they feel more financial concern heading into the holidays, yet 64 percent expect to spend the same or more than last year. When people were asked how they would cope, 39 percent said they would cut back on dining out and 35 percent on gifts for themselves. Their top budget tactics were setting a budget at 36 percent, comparing prices at 32 percent and waiting for sales at 31 percent.
Read alongside the forecast, the survey explains why growth is steady and not spectacular. Worried shoppers still buy, but they negotiate with themselves first. They hunt for sales, trim their own wish lists and look for a way to soften the hit to their monthly budget. That is the environment in which rewards, cash back and installment offers become more persuasive.
Rewards and Pay Later
A large majority, 67 percent, said they are more likely to shop with a retailer that offers rewards or cash back. On pay later, 55 percent said they have used it or considered it, and of that group, 75 percent plan to use it or are considering it for holiday shopping. A simple multiplication suggests this is about 41 percent of all respondents, assuming the same base. Some 42 percent said they would be more likely to buy if pay later were offered.
What People Value About It
The features respondents valued were flexibility on when and how to pay at 60 percent, promotions at 60 percent, control over budget at 59 percent and spreading out costs at 59 percent. The closeness of those numbers suggests people see pay later as a cash-flow tool and not just a deal. That is a reasonable view, and it is also the reason to treat it with caution, since cash-flow tools work well only when the money really does arrive later.
Taken together, the survey suggests that many shoppers are not planning to spend less so much as to spend more carefully, which is a sensible plan if it is followed.
Early Sales, Prime Day and Timing Pressure
The season is no longer confined to the weeks after Thanksgiving. According to PayPal’s survey, 58 percent of respondents plan to shop before Thanksgiving, and 40 percent plan to start by the end of October. Adobe counted $9.9 billion in online spending during the 6 and 7 October Amazon event, up 9.2 percent. For many households the holiday budget is being spent before the first cold snap.
The Upside of Shopping Early
Starting early spreads costs over more pay periods, leaves room to watch prices and avoids the last-minute rush when shipping slows. It also lets you take advantage of any shipping cutoffs and return windows that retailers extend for the holidays, which usually run later than normal. Many stores allow returns on holiday purchases into the new year, but the rules vary, so check the policy for each retailer.
Shipping and return windows are the quiet part of any deal. A low price loses its appeal if the return window is short or the seller charges a restocking fee. Holiday gifts are especially affected, because a present bought in October may be opened in December, by which time a standard return period could have passed. Look for an extended holiday return policy, and keep the gift receipt separate from the packaging.
The Trap of Manufactured Urgency
The risk is that early sales make a person feel they must buy now or miss out. Countdown clocks, limited-stock labels and one-day prices are designed to trigger that reaction. A useful defense is to put an item in the cart and wait a day. If the item is a real bargain, it will usually still be reasonable tomorrow, and if the price truly vanished, you have saved yourself from a purchase you were pressured into. Price tracking tools and a quick look at an item’s past price can help show whether a deal is real.
Gift cards deserve the same caution. Buy them from the issuer or a recognized store, check that the packaging has not been tampered with, and be wary of anyone who asks you to pay a bill or a fee with gift cards. That request is a hallmark of fraud.
Watch for Delivery Scams
Busy periods bring an increase in fake messages claiming a package is delayed, asking you to confirm an address or pay a small fee. Do not tap links in unexpected texts. Instead, open the retailer’s app or type the website address yourself to check the order status. Legitimate carriers and retailers rarely ask for card details through a text message.
Final Thoughts: A Sensible Order of Choices
A season this large rewards a bit of planning. The steps below are in an order that tends to prevent the most common regrets.
Set the Budget Before You Browse
Decide on a total for gifts, food, travel and extras, and write it down. PayPal’s survey found setting a budget was the most commonly named tactic, at 36 percent, and it works because it turns every later choice into a trade-off. Split the total across the people and events on your list, and leave a small reserve for the item you forgot.
Choose How to Pay
If you pay with a debit or credit card, know your statement date and be sure you can pay the full balance. If you consider pay later, apply the table of questions above, and keep the number of open plans low enough to remember. A card with rewards or cash back is only a bargain when you pay it off in full; interest charges can erase any reward.
Check the Retailer, Then the Price
Buy from sellers you recognize, and look at the shipping cost, delivery date and return window before the discount. Compare prices at two or three stores, since a deal at one can be matched at another. Be careful with marketplace sellers and unfamiliar sites that offer prices far below everyone else.
Keep Records and Revisit the Plan
Save order confirmations, track your spending against the budget weekly and keep receipts for returns. If you notice the total creeping up, pause. The forecast says the country will spend a record amount online, but there is no prize for matching the average. This article is general information only, and a qualified professional can advise on your own finances.
Frequently Asked Questions
How Much Will Americans Spend Online This Holiday Season?
Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion in US online holiday sales between 1 November and 31 December 2026, up 6.7 percent. That is a forecast, not a final result.
When Is Cyber Monday in 2026?
Cyber Monday falls on 30 November. Adobe expects online spending that day to reach $15.1 billion, up 6.2 percent.
How Much of Holiday Online Shopping Will Use Buy Now, Pay Later?
Adobe expects buy now, pay later spending of $21.3 billion in November and December, up 6.6 percent. That is roughly 7.7 percent of the forecast online total by simple arithmetic.
Is Buy Now, Pay Later a Good Idea for Holiday Gifts?
It depends on the terms and on your budget. It can help spread a cost, but late fees vary by provider, refunds can be slower and several plans are easy to lose track of. Treat installments as part of your normal budget.
Does AI Traffic Mean More People Are Buying Through Chatbots?
Not necessarily. Adobe expects AI-driven traffic to retail sites to rise 130 percent, but that counts visits and not purchases. Always confirm prices and policies on the seller’s own page.
Should I Start Holiday Shopping Early?
Starting early can spread out costs and avoid shipping delays, and PayPal’s survey found 40 percent of people plan to begin by the end of October. Just avoid buying under pressure, and check the return policy for each purchase.